Austin Post, U.S. Geological Survey, Cascades Volcano Observatory

This article is based on an address by Dr. Frank Press as Walker-Ames Lecturer at the University of Washington School of Public Health and Community Medicine, February 22, 1996. One reason we honor Darwin is that he challenged conventional wisdom and taught the world to think in a fundamentally new way That is what we need to do about natural hazards, which are a public health threat as much as disease, poverty, and hunger. We cannot prevail over natural hazards with science

Hazards, Not Disasters

Natural hazards are low-probability events that are largely unstoppable. Natural disasters are the unfortunately common consequences of these extreme events. Millions of people now die unnecessarily.  I believe that reducing disasters - which is to say, the toll of natural hazards - is one of the great challenges of our times. We have the scientific and practical knowledge to survive phenomena that have devastated mankind since before Biblical times. It is an opportunity of historic significance.

Over the past few decades we have witnessed events of massive proportions, mainly in the developing world. Examples are floods in Brazil, Sudan, and Bangladesh, where 150,000 persons died, earthquakes in Japan, the Philippines, Armenia (50,000 killed), and Iran (40,000 killed and more than 200,000 injured)- a typhoon in the Philippines, and hurricanes Hugo and Gilbert in the southeastern U.S. and Caribbean. A single major disaster can retard economic progress in a developing country by as much as five years. The two-thirds of the world's population who live in developing nations suffer 95% of all disaster casualties.

Industrial nations such as ours also have suffered severe losses. In the United States more than $100 billion was lost in natural disasters in the past seven years. Contributors were earthquakes in northern and southern California, hurricanes along the Atlantic Coast, and major floods, including those in recent months in Washington and Oregon. Fortunately, in marked contrast to other countries, only a few hundred lives were lost. Nevertheless, a "megadisaster" will happen eventually - probably in California or in this region. Recent scientific evidence shows the potential for a magnitude 9 earthquake in the Northwest.

For several reasons the effects of hazards are worsening by the year, despite our increased understanding. First, as the world's population continues to grow, many people are settling in areas of high risk, such as flood plains, coasts, seismic zones, or mountain slopes susceptible to landslides. Twenty megacities have populations exceeding 10 million. When a natural catastrophe occurs in such cities, more people are hurt immediately, and critical life support systems are interrupted. Population expansion also has altered the natural environment. Deforestation in the Amazon has caused increased flooding, landslides, and soil erosion. Excessive grazing of and grasslands accelerated desertification in sub-Saharan Africa.

Many of the worlds buildings are unsafe. They fail to protect their inhabitants against earthquakes and other hazards. The Kobe quake shocked the Japanese, who took pride in their engineering skills. The failure of a section of the Oakland Bay Bridge and freeway structures in the 1989 earthquake in the San Francisco area surprised engineers and public officials.

Assessment of Risk

Mitigation

Social scientists have helped us recognize the social and economic realities of educating the public, helping people prepare for disasters, providing safer low-cost housing, or creating more effective emergency services. Nevertheless, not all jurisdictions at risk for serious hazards have adopted building codes or land use controls that would reduce their vulnerability to hazards. We have the information and engineering expertise-, the problem is putting our knowledge into general and enforced practice.

An 82-year-old woman retrieves her belongings from her devasted home in Ashiya City, Japan, on January 19, 1995. The 7.2 magnitude quake centered near Kobe killed 6,055 persons, injured 26,801, and left more than 250,000 homeless.

Two examples will contrast the results of preparedness versus ignoring the warnings. Hurricane Gilbert, which swept through the Caribbean in 1988, was the most powerful storm ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere, but its death toll, 316 persons, was far lower than those for many smaller hurricanes in this region. The reason was that people and governments were well prepped for Hurricane Gilbert. Weather reports were timely and reasonably accurate. The public was educated to heed these warnings and take appropriate actions. Land use restrictions and building codes minimized loss of life and property. Governments had emergency teams waiting to provide assistance.  In contrast, the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz, the volcano in Colombia, buried 22,000 persons in a mud flow. A steam eruption two months earlier prompted scientists to warn the government of the potential for a major eruption. Unfortunately, people near the volcano were not alerted. They remained in their homes and perished.

Hazard assessment is essentially a technical professional activity, but it is only the precursor to hazard management, which involves the messy political process of balancing interests and priorities, and of implementing change. Thus, we must work with political decision makers to apply our improved science and technology to both long-term protective measures and short-term warnings.

As an example of long-term measures, factories sometimes can be sited way from seismic zones or hurricane belts. If that is not possible, they can be designed for more hazard resistance. Cities can adopt codes to prevent construction in areas most susceptible to landslides. Many affordable ways to improve buildings are available to people in developing countries. In Guatemala, for instance, adobe homes built with wooden frames provide more reinforcement during earthquakes.

A National Research Council report (Facing the Challenge, 1994) notes that industrial countries also must act more wisely. We should build our schools, hospitals, bridges, and power plants away from hazard areas, or to withstand known dangers. We must protect our natural resources and precious cultural treasures. Fire codes, dam safety standards, seismic codes, and other approaches all can help, as can insurance policies that provide disincentives for building in the most vulnerable seismic zones, fire-prone areas, flood plains, and low coastal areas.

Another broad way of mitigating the impact of natural hazards is by confronting the phenomena directly Governments can use engineering methods to prevent floods, or plant trees and take other measures to stop soil erosion. Risk management tools can help assess the difficult social tradeoffs and promote better ways of influencing public and private decisions.

Finally, one of the most important categories for reducing the toll of natural hazards is public education. Expert studies are of limited value unless public officials and the public are educated about risks and able to understand and respond to warnings. Ordinary people must take some responsibility and they will. In Los Angeles, where I once lived, the number of people who stocked emergency water supplies in case of an earthquake increased five-fold in 15 years. The proportion of families with their own emergency plans doubled. Businesses and local jurisdictions can prepare plans for emergency response, recovery, and reconstruction. These approaches can produce remarkable savings in life and property.

International Cooperation

Agreement on several worthwhile goals has been reached. For instance, by 2000, all countries should have national assessments of disaster risks, plans for prevention and preparedness, and access to global, regional, and local warning systems. More than 100 nations have formed national committees to help meet these goals.

An example of scientific cooperation with implications for the Pacific Northwest is that the International Association of Volcanology has declared Mount Rainier a "Decade Volcano" because it is near vulnerable populations. The volcanoes of the Pacific Northwest erupt explosively and cause fast-moving landslides, lateral blasts, and pyroclastic flows. Research will be focused on the development and behavior of the volcano; coordination among geoscientists, planners, and responsible authorities will improve to apply research results to hazard reduction efforts.

Skepticism about large international initiatives is easy, but I have met with many of the political leaders, scientists, and others who are involved, and I sense a real change. For example, in the United States the director of the Federal Emergency Management Administration is making mitigation a priority with President Clinton's support.

We can take great pride that this progress has its roots in science and technology much of what needs to occur must take place in town halls, classrooms, board rooms, and insurance offices outside the immediate world of science, but it begins with scientists.

We face a challenge to do the job and to convince our elected officials that we have tools that can save millions of lives. We must convince them to change their attitude from fatalism to a pro-active stance, to use this new knowledge in public education efforts, improved warning systems, building codes, insurance plans, and other measures to save lives. The International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction is helping us do this, and the international exposure of UN sponsorship is literally shaming many political leaders into action on behalf of their peoples.

The message is clear. Humanity is more vulnerable than ever to natural hazards, but it also has unprecedented power to predict these hazards and mitigate their effect. A judicious blend of science and technology with enlightened public policy and education could change the course of history Imagine world in which the losses from earthquakes, hurricanes, and volcanoes arc largely under control.

Recommended Reading National Research Council: A Safer Future: Reducing the Impact of Natural Disasters. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1991. National Research Council: Facing the Challenge. Washington DC: National Academy Press, 1994. Author Frank Press, Ph.D., is president emeritus of the National Academy of Sciences and senior scientist at the Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC.

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